2019 Fantasy Football Week 2 Remaining Season Projections – MSilb Analytics

Updates for Week 2 including roster moves, signings, trades, and updated depth charts. No notable waiver wire picks are popping out this week. Most notable, Derrick Henry moves up the #1 or #2 RB in most formats.

Click Here for Google Sheets Link

2019 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings – @MSilbAnalytics

2019 Rankings Link TO DOWNLOAD

2019 Fantasy Football Rankings and Point Projections are ready to go. Updates will continue as cuts, signings, and trades are made. Read below for rankings, players to target, players to avoid, and sleepers.
Last Updated: 09/07/2019

Stay tuned to www.MSilbAnalytics.com for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

Roster Updates Reflected:
– LeSean McCoy cut from Buffalo, still unsigned – SIGNED
– Ezekiel Elliott likely to sign before week 1 (included in rankings) – SIGNED
– Melvin Gordon not expected to sign (excluded from rankings).
– LeSean McCoy > KC RB2. Carlos Hyde > HOU RB2.
– Josh Doctson > MIN WR3.
– Official Week 1 Depth Chart Updates
Antonio Brown released from the Oakland Raiders (?!?!?!?!?!)

2019 RANKINGS LINK (Google Sheet – Open for a better view)

Pos Rank – Rank of each player within their position by fantasy points
– Fpts – Projected Fantasy Points.
PosIndex (NEW) – PosIndex is a 100-based index based around the ‘replacement starter’ at each position (QB – 12th ranked, RB/WR – 24th, TE 12th). Ex: JuJu Smith-Schuster has a 157 index in standard leagues, which means he’s 57% better than the ‘replacement’ WR option.
ADP – Average Draft Position
– ADR – Average Draft Round (12-team league)

Best High ADP Players
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR (ADP)
Christian McCaffreyRBCAR2701 (2)
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPIT1572 (14)
Travis KelceTEKC1562 (15)
James ConnerRBPIT1452 (16)
Todd GurleyRBLAR1431 (9)
Zach ErtzTEPHI1413 (28)
Adam ThielenWRMIN1403 (30)
High ADP Players to Avoid?
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR (ADP)
Stefon DiggsWRMIN843 (36)
Odell Beckham Jr.WRCLE872 (13)
Tyreek HillWRKC881 (5)
Devonta FreemanRBATL893 (26)
Kerryon JohnsonRBDET953 (29)
Derrick HenryRBTEN983 (34)
Le’Veon BellRBNYJ1081 (6)
Sleepers?
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR
(Round)
Austin Ekeler*RBLAC1497
Ben Roethlisberger QBPIT1449
Nick FolesQBJAX13717
Duke Johnson Jr.RBCLE1367
Sterling ShephardWRNYG1367
Eric EbronTEIND12911
Marcus MariotaQBTEN12618
Jordan Reed*TEWAS11812
Jimmy Garoppolo*QBSF11216
Adrian PetersonRBWAS10315
Will DisslyTESEA101
Paul RichardsonWRSEA100

Draft Strategy

As mentioned previously, use PosIndex and ADP in conjunction to build your personal strategy and make round-by-round decisions. The chart below shows a macro look:

Stack Ranked PosIndex by Position

The chart above shows the stack ranked PosIndex for each position. At RB there’s a by far and away #1 (McCaffrey), with a tier drop-of around #1. Between ~12-32, RBs and WRs have equal value off the board, and RB drops off around #35 to a new tier, but WRs never show a clear drop-off point through #65 (aside from slight tier breaks around #11 and #24.

My Takeaway: Grab RBs early if you can, and avoid getting duped by WRs 12-32 as WRs have the highest value late, whereas RBs do have a drop-off point. This new wave of drafting WRs like RBs is a losing strategy.

PosIndex Stack Ranked by ADR (Avg Draft Round) within each position

Looking at PosIndex through the lens of Average Draft Round (ADR) for a 12-team league helps us think through this strategy a bit more. We can see some of the same trends (WR value maintaining throughout the draft), but we also see when we need to prioritize specific positions:
RB: If you don’t get a top guy, you’re still safe in rounds 5-7, however once you hit round 8, there is a HUGE drop-off. Having your starters + bench RBs done by round 8 is a must.
TE: The drop-off through the first few rounds is intense, so don’t reach if you don’t grab a top guy early. We don’t see another drop-off until round 13, so you have time.
QB: Nobody knows anything, pick your poison.

Fantasy Football Toolbox: Depth Charts and Schedules

It’s the 2018 NFL Season, and @MSilbanalytics is back! Full rankings should be expected over the next few days – 1 week, but I’ll start off by sharing some of the data I’ve collected to build a Fantasy Football Toolbox.

Depth Charts: The big advancement in my 2018 projection models is including team depth charts to add an element of passes/rushes/targets. The struggle here is that it’s incredibly difficult to track down historical depth charts. As an assumption, the lead rusher (by carries) for a team each week will be determined to be the #1 RB, the lead receiver (by targets) for a team each week will be #1 WR or #1 TE, and so on.

Schedules: On top of depth charts, this year I’ll be implementing schedule impact on individual games and individual positions. Luckily, schedules are easier to come across, but I only went back to 2016 to stay consistent with the depth chart data that we have.

See the google sheet below (hopefully embedding works – LINK)

Technical Tools: For those interested, I used python to extract this data. You wold 100% hate your life if you tried to get this information manually. More detail:

  • Jupyter Notebooks: Python IDE (user interface)
  • URLlib + BeautifulSoup (html extraction)
  • Pandas (I like dataframes better than tables)
  • NumPy (to do math)
  • RE (to work with text)
  • OrderedDict (unordered would be nonsense)
  • csv (to make csv files).

NFL Championship Round DFS Player Projections

Click here for NFL Championship Round DFS Fantasy Football Player Rankings (.xlsx)

Get ready for the NFL Championship Round Playoffs slate of games!  Player Projections are listed below.  Choose wisely and try to get some wins this week!  Connect with me on Twitter as @MSilbAnalytics to talk strategy for the week.

SCHEDULE:
GB @ ATL – 3:05 PM
PIT @ NE – 6:40 PM

As usual, the Green Value categories are adjusted for player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively.  All positional rankings are sorted by the average of these two values (AVG V+)

Check you Over/Under lines for high scoring games, keep up to date on injury news, and WIN!

QB

p3qb

RB

p3rb
WR

p3wr

TE

p3te

NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Football DFS Player Projections

Click here for NFL Divisional Round DFS Fantasy Football Player Rankings (.xlsx)

Get ready for the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs slate of games!  Player Projections are listed below.  Choose wisely and try to get some wins this week!  Connect with me on Twitter as @MSilbAnalytics to talk strategy for the week.

SCHEDULE:
SEA @ ATL – Sat 4:35 PM
HOU @ NE – Sat 8:15 PM

GB @ DAL – Sun 4:40 PM
PIT @ KC – Sun 8:40 PM

As usual, the Green Value categories are adjusted for player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively.  All positional rankings are sorted by the average of these two values (AVG V+)

Check you Over/Under lines for high scoring games, keep up to date on injury news, and WIN!

QB

p2qb

RBp2rbWR
p2wr

TEp2te

NFL Wild Card Playoffs – Intriguing Fantasy Football Players

See the Twitter stream below.

Link to Player Rankings Post

     NFL Wild Card Week is just a short time away.  Finally, the playoffs!  For DFS this means a few things: 1. A limited number of players and games to pick from, 2. A large sample size of work to look at.  Unless of course, you’re trying to pick an AFC Quarterback, and that’s where we’ll start.

     Backup QBs Connor Cook and Matt Moore, as well as previously benched Brock Osweiler will all be starting this week.  Brock Osweiler has been the best fantasy points wise, averaging 12.4 PPG to Moore’s 9.6 (Cook scored 8 points on 21 attempts in Week 17).  It’s all a big mess.  In 50/50 cash games I’m staying away from them, but for tournament style it might be worth taking a flier if you want more cap space elsewhere.  Of those three, Osweiler is the most guaranteed pick and has the best defensive matchup at home vs Oakland (Moore @ PIT, Cook @ HOU).  Ben Roethlisberger has the highest value and could have huge numbers vs an injured Dolphins secondary.  However, when the two teams met in Miami, the Dolphins D-Line got to Big Ben, knocking him out and forcing him to play hurt.  Aaron Rodgers is overpriced, and Matt Stafford is popping out at me as a nice cheap option, but the matchup against Seattle is rough.

     At RB, it should be no surprise to see Le’Veon Bell, and Jay Ajayi.  Le’Veon is great, he doesn’t need any kind of explanation.  Interesting note about Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins win against the Steelers in Week 6 started Miami’s mid-season win streak and was also the first of Jay Ajayi’s 200+ yard games.  The last time Jay Ajayi rematched against a team he went for 200+ against (Buffalo), he did it again.  I’m hopping aboard the Jay Train all the way to London.  Lamar Miller and Latavius Murray follow in the confusing Radiers-Texans matchup, but I believe Ty Montgomery has breakout potential by running and catching the ball.  If the game in Green Bay turns run-heavy, look for Montgomery to go off.

     WR is by far and away the deepest position wild card week.  You have Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson and on and on.  My main hesitation is that there are also great options for secondary receivers.  Sterling Shepard, Davante Adams, and others are mixed in with the lower #1 WR group.  It’s really hard to differentiate, but if you want to go for the big name running backs, it might be wise to give up the top names and load up with high-value #2 WRs.

     At TE, you really only have a few names to pick from.  The best TE of the week should be in the group of Graham, Ebron, Green, Fiedorowicz, and Cook.  I’d suggest taking this position to either save cap space, or stack up with your QB.  Note that the Seahawks (vs DET, Ebron) and Texans (vs OAK, Walford) are the 3rd and 4th best defenses vs TE fantasy points.

     For the FLEX spot, I’m going to try to get one of those nice #2 or #3 WRs.  As for K and DEF, I’m all about ignoring them until you have your optimal offensive player lineup.  You can fit K and DEF into the puzzle later.  They’re too unpredictable to plan around.

Good luck to all, and WIN WIN WIN!

Week 17 NFL Fantasy Football DFS Player Projections

Click here for Week 17 NFL DFS Fantasy Football Player Rankings (.xlsx)

Get ready for the Week 17 slate of NFL Games!  We’re coming to you a few days early this week to get prepared before the holiday travel.  Player Projections are listed below.  Choose wisely and try to get some wins this week!  Connect with me on Twitter as @MSilbAnalytics to talk strategy for the week.

As usual, the Green Value categories are adjusted for player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively.  All positional rankings are sorted by the average of these two values (AVG V+)

Check you Over/Under lines for high scoring games, keep up to date on injury news, and stay tuned to see what teams have something to play for this week!

QB

17qb

RB
17rb

WR

17wr

TE

17te

Week 11 NFL Fantasy Football Intriguing Plays

NFL Sunday is here!  I’m still coming down from an amazing SEC East clinching win for the Florida Gators, and now it’s time to see if we can keep the good weekend going!  Here’s some unconventional names to check out when you get your week 11 Season-Long Fantasy Football, or Daily Fantasy Sports Lineups.  Good luck to all and contact me on Twitter @MSilbAnalytics.

Click here for Week 11 Player Rankings

Name Pos Score+ DK $ FD $ Matchup
Kirk Cousins QB 93.49 5800 7600 GB@WAS
Blake Bortles QB 63.59 5400 7200 JAC@DET
Isaiah Crowell RB 76.18 3900 6200 PIT@CLE
Lamar Miller RB 129.54 5800 7100 HOU@OAK
Spencer Ware RB 127.76 6000 7700 TB@KC
Jordan Howard RB 139.61 5800 6800 CHI@NYG
Jeremy Kerley WR 103.55 3500 5300 NE@SF
Doug Baldwin WR 159.50 5700 6700 PHI@SEA
Michael Thomas WR 163.13 6600 6500 NO@CAR
Kenny Britt WR 136.38 5200 6800 MIA@LA
Jamison Crowder WR 135.62 5400 6300 GB@WAS
Mike Wallace WR 149.48 5500 6800 BAL@DAL
Cole Beasley WR 129.41 5300 6400 BAL@DAL
Jordan Matthews WR 140.92 5400 5800 PHI@SEA
Marvin Jones Jr. WR 130.35 5000 6500 JAC@DET
Dennis Pitta TE 133.80 3600 4800 BAL@DAL
Zach Miller TE 138.25 3800 5500 CHI@NYG
Eric Ebron TE 173.30 4100 5400 JAC@DET
Martellus Bennett TE 117.74 3700 5200 NE@SF
Jack Doyle TE 88.68 3300 5000 TEN@IND

Week 11 NFL DFS Player Rankings (Thu-Mon)

Click here for Week 11 NFL DFS Fantasy Football Player Rankings (.xlsx)

Get ready for the Week 11 slate of NFL Games!  Player Projections are listed below.  Choose wisely and try to get some wins this week!  Connect with me on Twitter as @MSilbAnalytics to talk strategy for the week.  COLOR RUSH soon to kickoff!

Check you Over/Under lines for high scoring games, and keep up to date on injury news!

QB

11qb

RB

11rb

WR

11wr

TE

11te

Week 10 NFL Intriguing Fantasy Football Plays

Click here for Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 10 of NFL Sunday is almost upon us!  Take a look at the link above to see position-by-position breakdown for projected values across FanDuel and DraftKings as well as a pure Season-Long projection for the week.  We have all of the bases covered.  Here’s some names to make you go “hmm” when thinking about your lineups for the week.  We’re not listing the obvious stars, there’s nothing interesting about saying that Tom Brady and Matt Ryan might have good days.  As always, DO YOUR INJURY RESEARCH!  We can’t project a spot-start, so those are complete leaps of faith.

Name – Matchup – (FD $/ DK $)

QB

Eli Manning – NYG v CIN – (7600/5900)
Kirk Cousins –  WAS v MIN – (7100/5400)
Ben Roethlisberger – PIT v DAL – (7700/6800)
Philip Rivers – SD v MIA – (8100/6700)
Carson Palmer – ARI v SF – (7900/6500)

RB

Jordan Howard – CHI v TB – (6900/6000)
Lamar Miller – HOU v JAX – (7500/6400)
Mark Ingram – NO v DEN – (6300/5400)
Jeremy Hill – CIN v NYG – (6100/4400)
Devonta Freeman – ATL v PHI – (7000/6800)

WR

Eddie Royal – CHI v TB – (5100/3700)
Jordan Matthews – PHI v ATL – (5900/5900)
Kenny Britt – LA v NYJ – (6400/4900)
Cole Beasley – DAL v PIT – (6500/5400)

TE

Zach Miller – CHI v TB – (5400/3600)
Lance Kendricks – LA v NYJ – (4500/3000)
Coby Fleener – NO v DEN – (5600/3300)