My Next Chapter

Hi friends,

I’m re-branding my writing under my personal account name, @MSilb7 on Substack, with a focus on the areas where my professional life has taken me, and where I hope to go: business, consumer, startups, and tech (maybe with a sports skew).

My attempts to put coherent words on paper have been few and far between, and have had a heavy lean towards baseball and sports, (by that I mean 100% lean) which was without a doubt my passion early in my life. Unfortunately, this obsession has been fading over time for me, and I’m finding myself becoming more excited for a startups podcasts’ episodes, and less excited for Marlins games. With my roots in sports, and the level of experience to both sort of know, and also not at all know what I’m talking about, I hope that I’ll have a unique perspective worth reading. If not, I’ll just go back to anonymously getting 1-2 likes on Twitter.

My Writing History

I started blogging I think in my sophomore year of high school (shout-out Blogger). I was writing super under-the-radar about my pitching performances throughout the baseball season with no real intentions beyond message board fame, (tbt early internet) and catching scouts’ attention. Turns out, my athletic ability had very much already peaked, so I entered college on a purely academic path (Go Gators). Early on I wanted to pursue a “Moneyball” career path, which was the concept of using analytics to build a championship baseball team. I reached out to every MLB team through whatever contact info I could find (most times it was the ticket office), and luckily heard back from a few. I was young and had no experience outside of my playing days, so the best advice I received was along the lines of “thousands of people say that they want to work in baseball, but you have to differentiate yourself and show what you can bring to the table that can actually help a team win.” This motivated me to start MSilbBaseball, a blog where I tried to develop economic efficiency metrics and wrote about what I would do as an MLB GM. The blog idea worked, and the next summer I had an internship in baseball, although on the systems side of things. I then admittedly got a little burnt out on baseball once the business side became my life, but started developing an interest in Fantasy Football projections. So, the next wave was a rebrand to MSilbAnalytics, which I updated on and off for about 5 years (time flew). My professional career veered as far away from sports as you can get; starting in defense, moving to consumer / e-commerce, and now on to broader business strategy across industries that I know nothing about (yet).

In Closing

Thousands of people want to work in startups, venture, tech, etc., but what can we bring to the table to help a team win?

Follow me @MSilb7 on Twitter and Instagram!

*Thoughts, views, etc are completely my own and do not represent any past, present, or future employer.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings – @MSilbAnalytics

CLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE SHEET LINK

Week 5! My big trade target this week is Austin Hooper – TE6. He’s likely the least “untouchable” of the top tier TEs that also has Ertz, Engram, Waller, Andrews, and Kelce. Andrews may be the next down in trade rankings as 42-53% snap rate may be a concern vs Hooper’s 76-89%.

I’m going to try to track down a easy “% Owned” for waiver wire targets, but nothing really pops out at me with a quick scroll. Maybe Tyler Higbee as TE12 (I need TEs), Cole Beasley WR33. Marcus Mariota is my #2 QB, but I also haven’t not had as good of luck predicting QB performance as I have other positions (on my list of things to look at), so that may be safe to ignore. I’m going to pick up Mariota in case I lose faith in “The Jonesen One.”

CLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE SHEET LINK

Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 4 Rankings – @MSilbAnalytics

CLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE SHEET LINK

Super interesting this week to see shifts from draft day in players’ projections. Looking at 0.5 PPR – 6 pt QB TB, Christian McCaffrey holds as #1 overall, but Darren Waller has emerged to TE3, Alshon Jeffrey (if healthy) is WR2, Phillip Lindsay climbs to RB6. For potential waiver pickups, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen are QB4 and QB10, Wayne Gallman is RB14 (Saquon out), Vernon Davis is TE11 (Jordan Reed out), @MSilbAnalytics for other analysis.

2018 Fantasy Football Point Projections

msilbanalytics18

[Update 8/28/18 – I found a more reliable depth chart source, and recovered more detailed historical data. In short, projected passes/carries/targets and fantasy points are even more accurate!]

[Update 9/318 – Updated with roster cuts, other transactions, and injuries]

See the Google Sheet (link) below with tabs for different types of scoring models. If your scoring system is missing, please let me know!

Stay tuned to www.MSilbAnalytics.com for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

New for 2018:

  • Individual statistics and actual fantasy point projections rather than a derived “value” metric.
  • Statistics are driven by projected possessions dependent on the teams’ schemes, and the players’ histories.
  • Rookies! Approximated by the pre-season, but nevertheless, we have rookies.

See my bold predictions and next steps below the table.

2018 NFL Fantasy Stats Projections Link

Bold Predictions (in order of boldness):

    • Sam Bradford will lead the league in passing TDs and be the top scoring fantasy QB
      • Yes, this makes me nervous too, but he’s rated as the #30 QB by ESPN, so why not grab him in the last few rounds?
    • Tom Brady will be the #14 fantasy QB
      • You can’t fix old.
    • Geoff Swaim (or whoever starts at TE for the Cowboys) will be the #5 fantasy TE.
      • Whoever fills the Jason Witten void will be a huge value pick. Witten, who is now retired, was #2 in receptions for the Cowboys last year. If one player fills that void, they will be HUGE.
    • Kenyan Drake… actually good?
      • The Dolphins fan in me loves this, but Kenyan Drake projects as a top 5 RB in all leagues ahead of names like Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley.
    • Dede Westbrook will be a top 10 WR
      • With Hurns and Robinson gone, and Marquise Lee out for the season, Dede takes over as the #1 receiving option in Jax for the BOAT.
      • Update 9/3/18 – Dede Westbrook lost the #1 position on the Depth Chart to Keelan Cole, who now projects as the #15 fantasy WR (Dede falls to #34).
    • Larry Fitzgerald will be the top scoring fantasy WR
      • Makes for a convenient package with Bradford, ranked the #11 WR by ESPN, so spin him into a good value pick)

Next Steps:

  • Integrate Weekly Schedules
  • Pull in ESPN/Yahoo/NFL Fantasy Rankings to calculate the difference (and actually measure draft value)