Analytics, Football

2019 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings – @MSilbAnalytics

2019 Rankings Link TO DOWNLOAD

2019 Fantasy Football Rankings and Point Projections are ready to go. Updates will continue as cuts, signings, and trades are made. Read below for rankings, players to target, players to avoid, and sleepers.
Last Updated: 09/07/2019

Stay tuned to for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

Roster Updates Reflected:
– LeSean McCoy cut from Buffalo, still unsigned – SIGNED
– Ezekiel Elliott likely to sign before week 1 (included in rankings) – SIGNED
– Melvin Gordon not expected to sign (excluded from rankings).
– LeSean McCoy > KC RB2. Carlos Hyde > HOU RB2.
– Josh Doctson > MIN WR3.
– Official Week 1 Depth Chart Updates
Antonio Brown released from the Oakland Raiders (?!?!?!?!?!)

2019 RANKINGS LINK (Google Sheet – Open for a better view)

Pos Rank – Rank of each player within their position by fantasy points
– Fpts – Projected Fantasy Points.
PosIndex (NEW) – PosIndex is a 100-based index based around the ‘replacement starter’ at each position (QB – 12th ranked, RB/WR – 24th, TE 12th). Ex: JuJu Smith-Schuster has a 157 index in standard leagues, which means he’s 57% better than the ‘replacement’ WR option.
ADP – Average Draft Position
– ADR – Average Draft Round (12-team league)

Best High ADP Players
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR (ADP)
Christian McCaffreyRBCAR2701 (2)
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPIT1572 (14)
Travis KelceTEKC1562 (15)
James ConnerRBPIT1452 (16)
Todd GurleyRBLAR1431 (9)
Zach ErtzTEPHI1413 (28)
Adam ThielenWRMIN1403 (30)
High ADP Players to Avoid?
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR (ADP)
Stefon DiggsWRMIN843 (36)
Odell Beckham Jr.WRCLE872 (13)
Tyreek HillWRKC881 (5)
Devonta FreemanRBATL893 (26)
Kerryon JohnsonRBDET953 (29)
Derrick HenryRBTEN983 (34)
Le’Veon BellRBNYJ1081 (6)
Austin Ekeler*RBLAC1497
Ben Roethlisberger QBPIT1449
Nick FolesQBJAX13717
Duke Johnson Jr.RBCLE1367
Sterling ShephardWRNYG1367
Eric EbronTEIND12911
Marcus MariotaQBTEN12618
Jordan Reed*TEWAS11812
Jimmy Garoppolo*QBSF11216
Adrian PetersonRBWAS10315
Will DisslyTESEA101
Paul RichardsonWRSEA100

Draft Strategy

As mentioned previously, use PosIndex and ADP in conjunction to build your personal strategy and make round-by-round decisions. The chart below shows a macro look:

Stack Ranked PosIndex by Position

The chart above shows the stack ranked PosIndex for each position. At RB there’s a by far and away #1 (McCaffrey), with a tier drop-of around #1. Between ~12-32, RBs and WRs have equal value off the board, and RB drops off around #35 to a new tier, but WRs never show a clear drop-off point through #65 (aside from slight tier breaks around #11 and #24.

My Takeaway: Grab RBs early if you can, and avoid getting duped by WRs 12-32 as WRs have the highest value late, whereas RBs do have a drop-off point. This new wave of drafting WRs like RBs is a losing strategy.

PosIndex Stack Ranked by ADR (Avg Draft Round) within each position

Looking at PosIndex through the lens of Average Draft Round (ADR) for a 12-team league helps us think through this strategy a bit more. We can see some of the same trends (WR value maintaining throughout the draft), but we also see when we need to prioritize specific positions:
RB: If you don’t get a top guy, you’re still safe in rounds 5-7, however once you hit round 8, there is a HUGE drop-off. Having your starters + bench RBs done by round 8 is a must.
TE: The drop-off through the first few rounds is intense, so don’t reach if you don’t grab a top guy early. We don’t see another drop-off until round 13, so you have time.
QB: Nobody knows anything, pick your poison.

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