My Quarantine Stack 3/30/20

I’ve been on work from home guidance (Seattle-based) since Thursday, March 5th. I escaped back home to Florida on Sunday, March 8th. Today is March 30th. Here are some things:

What I’m reading:

The Lean Startup – Framework for running efficient and high growth companies with the freedom to continuously experiment. I bookmarked so many sections, and have way too many phone reminders to comb through with ideas that came to mind while reading/listening to this. This book made my Seattle to Ft. Lauderdale flight without seatback TVs enjoyable.

Secrets of Sand Hill Road – Just started this one, super interested for this deep-dive into venture capital. I can pretend to know what I’m talking about even more once I finish this.

But I’m actually just using Audible for everything, so I’m not that big of a reader.

Morning Brew – Quick scroll through daily news with an approachable and consumable vibe.

Twitter – This site is free. I think I found VC Twitter which is all of the drama I need until sports comes back.

What I’m Listening to:

New music in a quarantine!

Other music I’ve recently liked on Spotify:

Podcasts:

Dan LeBatard Show with Stugotz – A South Florida sports show that thrives when they’re not talking about sports. My favorite show right now. #lour

Pardon My Take – A hilarious, satirical sports show from Barstool. Recent guests include Dr. Anthony Fauci and Lavar Ball. It’s on the Mount Rushmore of podcasts.

Robinhood Snacks Daily – 10-15 minutes of business news snacks. Quickly became “must listen” for me every day. TBOY.

What I’m watching:

This Week in Startups – Each episode has also become “must listen” for me as well. It’s like a business crash course hearing from VCs, founders, journalists and others. I prefer watching on YouTube vs listening over podcast because I feel a stronger connection to the conversation if I can actually see the conversation.

Tiger King – If you’ve been on the internet or seen another human, you know about this.

Barstool Rundown – A satirical, comedic, vulgar, and very very unique take on each day’s events from the common sports fan. The personalities and day-by-day story lines are gold.

Not The Expert (DVSU Dingos) – I’m invested in an NCAA Football video game teambuilder dynasty. Drewski is super entertaining, and I miss sports.

How I’m communicating:

Video Chat Tools – I’ve used FaceTime, Zoom, Microsoft Teams, and Amazon Chime to talk to friends back in Seattle. I’m only a Slack away from winning Bingo.

Jackbox Games – Perfect party and remote happy hour game. You can stream over video chat apps like Zoom, or use a gaming live-stream service like Twitch or Mixer.

Other things:

DoorDash – A food delivery service that (like many others) has dropped delivery fees in an effort to support local businesses which are weathering drop-offs in demand.

MLB The Show 20 – We need sports back. I need baseball back.

AirPods (Pro) – My quarantine splurge. I needed better headphones to work from home in peace. I was hard against iPhones when they first came out (I am now a happy iPhone user), and I was also hard against AirPods when they came out (I am now a happy AirPods user). It’s probably best at this point to keep my Mac laptop opinions to myself.

Calm app – This has also been very helpful to stay sane during work from home and quarantine. I started the 7-day free trial, and I’ve been listening to my 10-minute Daily Calms, and Lebron James’ mental fitness course.

Bubly Variety Pack – I just like the bubbly water.

Outdoors – Luckily, I got to Florida at the perfect time. Walks around the neighborhood every few hours during the workday, and/or trying to go on a run has been super rejuvenating during the day.

My Next Chapter

Hi friends,

I’m re-branding my writing under my personal account name, @MSilb7 on Substack, with a focus on the areas where my professional life has taken me, and where I hope to go: business, consumer, startups, and tech (maybe with a sports skew).

My attempts to put coherent words on paper have been few and far between, and have had a heavy lean towards baseball and sports, (by that I mean 100% lean) which was without a doubt my passion early in my life. Unfortunately, this obsession has been fading over time for me, and I’m finding myself becoming more excited for a startups podcasts’ episodes, and less excited for Marlins games. With my roots in sports, and the level of experience to both sort of know, and also not at all know what I’m talking about, I hope that I’ll have a unique perspective worth reading. If not, I’ll just go back to anonymously getting 1-2 likes on Twitter.

My Writing History

I started blogging I think in my sophomore year of high school (shout-out Blogger). I was writing super under-the-radar about my pitching performances throughout the baseball season with no real intentions beyond message board fame, (tbt early internet) and catching scouts’ attention. Turns out, my athletic ability had very much already peaked, so I entered college on a purely academic path (Go Gators). Early on I wanted to pursue a “Moneyball” career path, which was the concept of using analytics to build a championship baseball team. I reached out to every MLB team through whatever contact info I could find (most times it was the ticket office), and luckily heard back from a few. I was young and had no experience outside of my playing days, so the best advice I received was along the lines of “thousands of people say that they want to work in baseball, but you have to differentiate yourself and show what you can bring to the table that can actually help a team win.” This motivated me to start MSilbBaseball, a blog where I tried to develop economic efficiency metrics and wrote about what I would do as an MLB GM. The blog idea worked, and the next summer I had an internship in baseball, although on the systems side of things. I then admittedly got a little burnt out on baseball once the business side became my life, but started developing an interest in Fantasy Football projections. So, the next wave was a rebrand to MSilbAnalytics, which I updated on and off for about 5 years (time flew). My professional career veered as far away from sports as you can get; starting in defense, moving to consumer / e-commerce, and now on to broader business strategy across industries that I know nothing about (yet).

In Closing

Thousands of people want to work in startups, venture, tech, etc., but what can we bring to the table to help a team win?

Follow me @MSilb7 on Twitter and Instagram!

*Thoughts, views, etc are completely my own and do not represent any past, present, or future employer.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings – @MSilbAnalytics

CLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE SHEET LINK

Week 5! My big trade target this week is Austin Hooper – TE6. He’s likely the least “untouchable” of the top tier TEs that also has Ertz, Engram, Waller, Andrews, and Kelce. Andrews may be the next down in trade rankings as 42-53% snap rate may be a concern vs Hooper’s 76-89%.

I’m going to try to track down a easy “% Owned” for waiver wire targets, but nothing really pops out at me with a quick scroll. Maybe Tyler Higbee as TE12 (I need TEs), Cole Beasley WR33. Marcus Mariota is my #2 QB, but I also haven’t not had as good of luck predicting QB performance as I have other positions (on my list of things to look at), so that may be safe to ignore. I’m going to pick up Mariota in case I lose faith in “The Jonesen One.”

CLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE SHEET LINK

Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 4 Rankings – @MSilbAnalytics

CLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE SHEET LINK

Super interesting this week to see shifts from draft day in players’ projections. Looking at 0.5 PPR – 6 pt QB TB, Christian McCaffrey holds as #1 overall, but Darren Waller has emerged to TE3, Alshon Jeffrey (if healthy) is WR2, Phillip Lindsay climbs to RB6. For potential waiver pickups, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen are QB4 and QB10, Wayne Gallman is RB14 (Saquon out), Vernon Davis is TE11 (Jordan Reed out), @MSilbAnalytics for other analysis.

2019 Fantasy Football Week 2 Remaining Season Projections – MSilb Analytics

Updates for Week 2 including roster moves, signings, trades, and updated depth charts. No notable waiver wire picks are popping out this week. Most notable, Derrick Henry moves up the #1 or #2 RB in most formats.

Click Here for Google Sheets Link

2019 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings – @MSilbAnalytics

2019 Rankings Link TO DOWNLOAD

2019 Fantasy Football Rankings and Point Projections are ready to go. Updates will continue as cuts, signings, and trades are made. Read below for rankings, players to target, players to avoid, and sleepers.
Last Updated: 09/07/2019

Stay tuned to www.MSilbAnalytics.com for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

Roster Updates Reflected:
– LeSean McCoy cut from Buffalo, still unsigned – SIGNED
– Ezekiel Elliott likely to sign before week 1 (included in rankings) – SIGNED
– Melvin Gordon not expected to sign (excluded from rankings).
– LeSean McCoy > KC RB2. Carlos Hyde > HOU RB2.
– Josh Doctson > MIN WR3.
– Official Week 1 Depth Chart Updates
Antonio Brown released from the Oakland Raiders (?!?!?!?!?!)

2019 RANKINGS LINK (Google Sheet – Open for a better view)

Pos Rank – Rank of each player within their position by fantasy points
– Fpts – Projected Fantasy Points.
PosIndex (NEW) – PosIndex is a 100-based index based around the ‘replacement starter’ at each position (QB – 12th ranked, RB/WR – 24th, TE 12th). Ex: JuJu Smith-Schuster has a 157 index in standard leagues, which means he’s 57% better than the ‘replacement’ WR option.
ADP – Average Draft Position
– ADR – Average Draft Round (12-team league)

Best High ADP Players
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR (ADP)
Christian McCaffreyRBCAR2701 (2)
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPIT1572 (14)
Travis KelceTEKC1562 (15)
James ConnerRBPIT1452 (16)
Todd GurleyRBLAR1431 (9)
Zach ErtzTEPHI1413 (28)
Adam ThielenWRMIN1403 (30)
High ADP Players to Avoid?
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR (ADP)
Stefon DiggsWRMIN843 (36)
Odell Beckham Jr.WRCLE872 (13)
Tyreek HillWRKC881 (5)
Devonta FreemanRBATL893 (26)
Kerryon JohnsonRBDET953 (29)
Derrick HenryRBTEN983 (34)
Le’Veon BellRBNYJ1081 (6)
Sleepers?
NamePosTeamPosIndexADR
(Round)
Austin Ekeler*RBLAC1497
Ben Roethlisberger QBPIT1449
Nick FolesQBJAX13717
Duke Johnson Jr.RBCLE1367
Sterling ShephardWRNYG1367
Eric EbronTEIND12911
Marcus MariotaQBTEN12618
Jordan Reed*TEWAS11812
Jimmy Garoppolo*QBSF11216
Adrian PetersonRBWAS10315
Will DisslyTESEA101
Paul RichardsonWRSEA100

Draft Strategy

As mentioned previously, use PosIndex and ADP in conjunction to build your personal strategy and make round-by-round decisions. The chart below shows a macro look:

Stack Ranked PosIndex by Position

The chart above shows the stack ranked PosIndex for each position. At RB there’s a by far and away #1 (McCaffrey), with a tier drop-of around #1. Between ~12-32, RBs and WRs have equal value off the board, and RB drops off around #35 to a new tier, but WRs never show a clear drop-off point through #65 (aside from slight tier breaks around #11 and #24.

My Takeaway: Grab RBs early if you can, and avoid getting duped by WRs 12-32 as WRs have the highest value late, whereas RBs do have a drop-off point. This new wave of drafting WRs like RBs is a losing strategy.

PosIndex Stack Ranked by ADR (Avg Draft Round) within each position

Looking at PosIndex through the lens of Average Draft Round (ADR) for a 12-team league helps us think through this strategy a bit more. We can see some of the same trends (WR value maintaining throughout the draft), but we also see when we need to prioritize specific positions:
RB: If you don’t get a top guy, you’re still safe in rounds 5-7, however once you hit round 8, there is a HUGE drop-off. Having your starters + bench RBs done by round 8 is a must.
TE: The drop-off through the first few rounds is intense, so don’t reach if you don’t grab a top guy early. We don’t see another drop-off until round 13, so you have time.
QB: Nobody knows anything, pick your poison.